this wave is doing today the same thing it did the last two:
1) weak early morning
2) flare up mid-morning
3) mesoscale thunderstorm circulation in afternoon, everyone wrongly assumes it will be a TD at 5pm
4) daytime heat lessens, storms collapse, outflow boundaries race away in late afternoon, wave again falls apart

step 4 is now happening

although the shear has lessened, it does not seem to have lessened enough. this wave is only producing convection because of daytime heating and the upper low to the northeast

with winds racing away like that, this system never really did and never will have more than a 15% chance of developing
i am going to stick with that, and any other system that does what i have just described above, because it is more characteristic of a mesoscale thunderstorm blowup than a tropical depression. We will not see a storm this month, and I fully expect TD1 not to occur until August 12 or later.

for a comparison, this system looks like Lili did in 2002 before dissipating (winds ahead of the disturbance are not favorable like they were in 2002 though)