>>with winds racing away like that, this system never really did and never will have more than a 15% chance of developing

1) What are you willing to put down on that one?

>>3)...everyone wrongly assumes it will be a TD at 5pm

Wrong. I never said it would be. I expect it to be a little stronger tomorrow and then a bit stronger still on Friday. It's going to pulse.

Also, the shear isn't nearly as bad as you have painted it. The Stream Flow has very minor potential to inhibit the system. It's not about the shear this time. It's about the forward speed and other pertinent surrounding environmental issues. We've got easily another day until 97L is in a favorable position.

Steve