really good burst today from 97L. banding is visible in the low cloud field sw of the convection.. maybe not at the surface, but quite possibly. again the nhc has those contradictory statements: no evidence of closed surface circulation, then specific evidence (inconclusive scatterometer data) in the discussion.. and of course the appearance on visible.
if we do get development it will more than likely spend days one and two outrunning its convection and bursting as it tries to develop a solid cdo. i do suspect that we will have a tropical storm in two days time near western cuba. tropical models have it going west, which is fine as long as it stays extremely weak or doesn't develop. but i'd go two out of three that it does, and that it will be in the gulf by the weekend. from there it's a toss-up. until the globals get a realistic vestige of a tropical system on the charts then they are out to pasture. mean ridge strength in the eastern u.s. should be fluctuating, so i'll at least go with a snaking path.
rest of the basin.. itcz appearance near 40w (convergence paired with weak winds aloft paired with some wave action) has me thinking another bubble of activity could break off in the next day or two. no need for hawkish vigilance, just something to keep an eye out for.
nothing interesting going on with the trough jammed deep in the subtropics near/off the east coast. it isn't splitting cleanly, so there should be a fairly chaotic pattern out there next few days.. north of 97L, but potentially harboring its own invest if things happen just right.
aside from that celia is near hurricane strength, 50-50 it gets there in the next few hours before the california current claims another lemminglike eastpac tc victim. celia perhaps indicates that another system may try to form in the atlantic early next week.
something i've noticed. haven't made a huge study of when atlantic systems form on the mjo ebb and flow, though qualitatively noted that many form while mjo is switching to positive. as we are currently in such a state... hmm.
could comment on the posts i've seen today.. yeah, i'll say 'em.
bobbi stick to visibles for weak systems. wv imagery, as wxman007 noted, resolves the middle-upper troposphere. wv is great for spotting shear maxes, vortmaxes in upper troughs, subsidence (and a regular psychedelic zombie show when colorized).... but not useful for spotting low level features (like say a partially exposed incipient t.d.)
steve, you da man. since you're posting regularly today i guess it's about time for alex.
varmint keep cool, ignore the bozos. you do a decent job, when you aren't spazzing. don't think your forecasts today will pan out.. coup if 97L disintegrates, though.
LI phil keep the moderator sledge-o-matic handy. make gallagher proud. season will likely be christened this week.
'nuff wheel spinning, then. onward.
HF 2248z21july