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Gonna beat Rob & Jason to post...here's IWIC's afternoon discussion: IWIC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - 22 July 2004 - 1:20 PM EDT The tropical wave traversing the central Caribbean Sea has been devoid of any deep convection for about 18 hours. In fact, there are no more hints of a mid or low-level circulation either. Yesterday, we expected the wave to slowly intensify as it moved westward, though this is apparently not going to be the case. The explanation is quite simple, the wave had upper level support yesterday and today it does not. To put it an other way, there was an upper level low positioned just north of the system, which induced moderate shear aloft in the area. In turn, divergence increased, and the lead result of that was more lift and enhanced convection over the wave. Today, the wave has moved west of that upper level low and shear, so it has nothing else to sustain convection. Therefore, it is not surprising that we are not seeing any convective "blow-up". ---------------------------------------------------------------- Think we all (except for Bugsy) thought this would be something today. PS> 97L has been taken down by NRL...so it is now OFFICIALLY dead. |