situation normal. 97L isn't really a trackable entity right now.. just an un-exciting wave today. the interesting looking wave near 45w isn't moving very quickly. has spotty convection and an interesting itcz signature, but no real model support. weak low exposed west of the hung decaying trough off the southeast, noted earlier by several. expected something like that.. until it associates with convection it shouldn't do a whole lot.
whereas i was talking 2 of 3 that we'd have a storm by friday afternoon, today i see no chance of a system prior to sunday.
dust duchess i know '92 was an interesting year and all, but i can name several like it with similar overall conditions that had no cat 5 hurricane hitting florida. it was a chance event, really.. and not useful to compare to this year.
SOI has been down for several days now.. i'm getting fairly sure that weak el nino conditions will be upon us late in the season. it's going to take a prolonged neutral period or positive spike to bust the trend from here.
my numbers are stuck low.. maybe i'll get closer after all.
HF 2212z22july