Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Jul 23 2004 02:14 PM
Re: east Atlantic wave

Thanks for the link Droop.
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Tropics Guy,

I noticed the same thing today scanning Africa and its west coast on the Goes 12. That's the best wave so far. If you watch the frames, you can see the low pressure support (usually north of an emerging wave) actually combined with the wave to juice it up.

As for 98L, it's a watch and see game. It's between a trof to its west and building high pressure to its east. It's either going to get trapped or cut out away NE. It's too tough to tell yet.

The southern remains of 97L are in the west Central Caribbean, the northern energy gave 98L its kick start. That reminds me of a storm 2 or 3 years ago that bred a bunch of other stuff on its way (can't remember what that one was). Some convection moving into the BOC from the Mexican coast as well. Maybe that will supply some energy around the back side of the ULL now diving into Mexico.

Bastardi (out of town) said he's going to try to do a post keying in on the tropics later today. If so, I'll try to find the highlights. For now, he's just mentioning that the youth of the season is the major limitation. His thoughts on 98L are that it'll probably drift north for a couple of days as the trof lifts out, the ridge backs into it and the air warms over it. He did reference that big & unseasonbly cool high pressures over the belly of the U.S. usually have a buildup of warmth close by in the subtropics (moreso in August and September than July). He's not even writing off 97L as the wave in the Gulf will have to be watched next week. Since the northern end's intersection with the pre-existing trof set off 98L, apparently anything in or near the Gulf could be similarly set off.

Steve



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