Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Jul 24 2004 02:24 AM
Re: "97L"

That's the other item. I think that might/could/kinda be associated with either the remnants of the split trof/ULL that backed off ahead of it or maybe some of the energy from 97L's defunct LLC (but that would most likely have traveled further west of Costa Rica by now I think).

What I'm more referring to in the TNRCC high-res IR photo is the energy coming in around 15N/80W. It is the part of the wave axis of 97L. (As discussed, when it hit the dry zone, a piece of energy shearned north into the surface trof, but the wave remained sans its invest). In Bastardi's world, It was never supposed to do anything until it got to the Gulf anyway. And he had it slowing down from a week ago. Phil (and of course the rest of us) were on that wave for at least a week. There was a reason. It was packing energy for whatever was in the way. I think it was Bobbi who called it a girl storm (fickle) and mentioned the pretty strong nightly/diurnal pulses. So 97L seeded 98L and perhaps still has something in store for itself. I always thought it was going to develop but just like early storms will sometimes get ya', I was somewhat tricked by its old MLC that spawned all of that convection into/with the pattern. Speaking of patterns, one more prop for Bastardi. He was talking 'watch SW Atlantic AND WC/GOM' from 7 or 8 days out. As always, he is the master of pattern recognition. Whether anything develops or not, Bobbi-watching IR colors are in both places.

For my money, the Western Atlantic Basin looks the best it has so far this year. What's interesting (to me) is the continued evolution of the 2004 season. It appears to be one where we have a real shot at a couple of long tracked Cape Verde storms with very real ([tm]) implications for North America and the Islands. We'll have to watch the continued evolution of the Altantic water temperature profiles to see how ridging will be supported. So far, the evolution has been outstanding (if you want to see long tracked storms, which for better or worse we all do. Don't lie ).

Finally. Props out for whichever Cornelii works for Google. I don't even have to search the site anymore to find something. Almost anything tropical I search for has a CFHC link in the top 3 results. Heh.

This post brought to you buy buzz.

Steve



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