|
|
|||||||
We must be getting close to that "time" of the tropical season again. Oh, that's right, we are. Check the GFS MSLP run out to 384 (this is a long way out, so take this fwiw): http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/carib/gfs/06/index_slp_l_loop.shtml By the end of this month, this model shows one strong tropical wave developing off of the African Coast and moving west to west-northwest while strengthening. A few days later, it shows another strong tropical wave moving west and strengthening in the wake of the first wave. This seems like a realistic solution given we're nearing the time when tropical activity tends to pick up. The MJO still warrants mention. Believe or not to believe, the Atlantic has been in the negative (positive for formation) MJO for a good portion of this month. Around the time that the GFS starts to pick the pace up, we may be seeing the negative MJO depart from the Atlantic, possibly tempering the activity that may possibly occur. The point is though, we're getting towards the time of the hurricane season when things usually start to pick up. |