interesting corollary, henri of '85... don't think this one will be classified, though. 98L is just far enough east so that the already drenched areas of north jersey don't get a great deal out of it, but southern new england could very well get soaked. ssts fall off fairly rapidly north of hatteras/va capes, so should just be a tropical low/rainstorm for monday. if it is classified.. well, it'll just be a t.d. 4 of 2000 type system. not illiciting dvorak classifications so that's a doubtful outcome.
97L has to contend with a stronger easterly flow.. which has been inducing lower-level shear and pushing vorticity below 700mb or so out ahead of the convection being supported in the area. not sure about fallen heights to the north having much of an effect.. it probably won't develop.. so most of the moisture influx should stay to the south in mexico. i'm not for it developing.. looked good for it back on tue-wed.. kinda pissant now.
past these features, nothing on gfs in the believable future that's worth mentioning. the stuff out there will need several runs of relative agreement on trouble before they have any credibility.
mjo is acting funny.. on the anomaly charts it did a backstep... it's wave seems to have split and given it a multiple phase. possibly had something to do with SOI lingering in the negative, or the late but harsh arrival of the monsoon in south asia. it will be hard to time the arrival of the next wave, since the neat and regular propagation earlier this year has gotten mixed up.
nino 3/4 is in the warm phase now. 1/2 are hanging in the cold phase. this is similar to last year and the year before that (perhaps a compromise of the two). SOI continues to hang negative, so the onset of el nino is becoming a likelihood.
HF 1835z25july