Forgive me for just briefly changing the subject to El Nino, but if it does materialise later in the year, is it possible to know whether it will have a supressing effect on the 2005 Atlantic season, or is it too far away to know? My guess is that it is too distant, but I'm not sure.

On a more related note, SSTs in the GOM have begun to warm again, so if the wave formerly known as 97L can make it there, it would have a good shot at development. Note the emphasis on 'IF'. The wave in the Caribbean is still holding onto its convection, but it seems to be weakening, and the convection may be disrupted if the system brushes the Dominican Republic and Haiti. We should probably look east for development during the coming days and weeks.