Looking for a good lead-in line - lets see:

Today the inept forecasters at NHC refused to upgrade a significant tropical wave to Depression status and felt the wrath of 2 or 3 thousand astute tropical weather enthusiasts from around the world. This is the seventeen worldwide occurance of this serious infraction this year of tropical meteorological guidelines.

No - wait a minute - doesn't seem right - lets try again:

Today the professionals at NHC, following established guidelines, properly handled the classification of a dime-sized, elongated and sheared system and did not upgrade it to TD status. Unknown to them, this created quite a stir among maybe twenty or thirty avid fanatical tropical weather watchers that dissect every wave (wet or otherwise) hiccup and burp in the Atlantic basin , on a couple of weather boards, that happened to take issue with their decision. It is felt that this outrage will probably not have much impact on changes to NHC policy.

I guess that we do this every year don't we? Only since its often the same folks, I can't figure out WHY we do this every year- it makes me wonder if we are learning anything? I want to emphasize that word 'why'. Its okay to disagree with NHC or TWC or anybody else, but at least tell me WHY you disagree (credit to Bobbi - she at least stated her reasons why - and HF and Steve always provide their rationale). To simply state that in your opinion there have been four TDs this year, without telling me the meteorological conditions that made you feel that way, teaches me nothing. Even the NHC tells you why they did or didn't do something. Disagreeing with NHC is when you explain why - bashing NHC is when you don't explain why (or you haven't got a clue). I'll accept the former on this board, but not the latter.

For some of you, I think that NHC becomes your favorite 'whipping boy' - when they do something, they are wrong and when they don't do something they are still wrong (usually the latter). Makes me wonder if they ever do anything right in your eyes. Yet every year we jump on their case during the season, but when the season is over we comment on how great a job they did on this storm or that storm. I'm guilty too, but at least I try to make an effort to explain my differing opinion if I have one. Some of you should do the same.

Here is a reality check: If the NHC had never mentioned this system in their discussions over the last couple of days, none of todays dialogue would have happened. Think about it - I mean really think about it. They give you a 'heads-up' that something COULD happen - are they wrong for that or were they just doing their job? Nothing happened (my opinion and obviously theirs), i.e., it (the potential TD) didn't and they (NHC) didn't - time to move on.

If I were working at NHC today (rather than CPHC many years ago - snuck that one in didn't I) I would have made the same decision. It had some TD characteristics, but not enough. It had a low-level circulation, but that circulation quickly became elongated east-west under the influence of the front to its immediate north. Convection was constantly under west southwesterly upper shear and could not wrap around the core. Even the models never projected anything greater than 29 knots. If the wave had been upgraded to a TD, it probably would have generated an outcry from those who would have felt that it didn't deserve it - a lose-lose scenario.

In my professional opinion, I don't think that there has been a TD yet this year in the Atlantic basin - not a one. Perhaps a bit unusual, but thats just calling it like I see it. The Haiti/Dominican Republic wave came close, but I don't believe that it had a closed circulation. I didn't see any reports, aircraft or surface of westerly wind - not a single one - so I believe that, although very strong, the wave was open and therefore not a TD.

Lets face it, we are really not here to debate the merits of the NHC or any other agency - we are here to track tropical systems. I think that its time to get back to that - sooner or later something will happen - it always does.
Cheers,
ED

P.S. Great post BillD - thank you for coming back to make it.