Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue Jul 27 2004 08:44 PM
Re: ok..cyclone..educate me a bit here please

Yeah, I was only kidding (thus the "heh"). I had a whale of a time finding a Goes Sat that I could click on to get me to those coordinates because the Longitude lines get pretty close together once you get to the land of Sigur Ros and Bjork/Sugarcubes.

Anyway, 65W 25N (or thereabouts) is the wave-entrained ULL that I noted Bastardi mentioned on his Tropical Update this morning. His worry (backed by the GFS Upper Air Charts) was that the ULL was going to back off SW and allow the buildup of energy to generate bottom up instead of top down (under the ULL). The departing ULL would leave rising air/diffluence in its wake and allow for potential buildup. None of the models depicting this (UK Met, ECMWF) showed anything 'severe' hitting coastal South Carolina, but the ripples in the isobar lines were right there on the map. Also, that would teleconnect with the JTWC's last prediction for the WPAC Typhoon.

Elsewhere, the Gulf is still muddled a bit from the cold front (nice here in the city today, lowER humidity), 97L continues to churn away in the BOC (sorry Bobbi, I can't let it go until it turns up into the front or progresses into Mexico - it's the only game in my neck 'o da woods). And finally, the wave energy on the western periphery of the Bermuda High off the East FL coast is probably kicking up some decent surf (go Robert) and should keep the Peninsula under the gun for a day or two. Tough to tell if the wave axis will continue west or if the convection is going to ride the ridge. We'll see.

Steve



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