before reading the posts on here i was going to say the following (nutshell version): watch the area around florida and the bahamas through the end of the month. add to that the typhoon teleconnection and the scenario is slightly more interesting. i'm not too impressed right now, it's still fighting the westerlies... and nothing very exciting in the models (except for those long range phantom storms steve was talking about). you can get the same 16-day gfs runs at the ncep models page. they're pretty much useless past 7 to 10... usually can't nail the pattern much less timing of waves.
SOI tipped positive for the first time in a while. have to really make a stand to block an el nino onset. i don't like el nino's effect on the south, so i'm willing it to stay positive until doomsday.
by the way byett, a happy 25 to ya saturday. enjoy the bitter, or whatever there is to do in the u.k. on one's birthday. my bud turns 24 on saturday.. so i'll probably be out having fun then too.
as for the classification debate the other day.. i'll stick by my guns on that may system, iffier about the unclassified invest from yesterday. ed's logic is good stuff.. hearing a 'seasoned veteran' with better than canned nhc explanations does have an effect. but i'm pretty sure we had one in may.
which leaves...bobbi. the editing axe has been left in the shed for a couple days.. you got some real ramblers in. those are some strange hobbies you've got there... try not to get arrested.
anyhow it's slow time with that one area sheared and undeveloped nearing 70w. almost out of july, so if it's coming it had better hurry.
HF 2346z27july