WHoah ho' thar! The UKMET and EC unreliable?........I don't think so. They are excellent models for picking up large scale patterns, and quite serious when they bark. NOGAPS throws a right bias into everything and really so does the GFS, along with the convective feedback problems it has had (and alledgedly fixed). AVN/GFS is notorious for spurious lows in the tropics as well. All models have their flaws/biases for sure, but have their strengths as well. Read some of the EPCs thought processes for insight, since they use the models to validate/blend/discount solutions every day. These discussions are great for learning and identifying when particular models are exhibiting their biases and when they are dead on in a given situation. Remember that models are tools. We need to learn the biases in order to use them properly