Agreed SteveH. The main problem I have with the ECMWF is that it tends to bias southward waves that it doesn't believe are going to develop. Sometimes it's an outiler, but often it is correct. I trust it more for overall pattern stuff (and the UKMet before I would trust the AVN/GFS suite and certainly more than NOGAPS). The biggest problem with GFS is it's inability to factor warm water in the Western Atlantic always wanting to drop a trof off the east coast in Days 10-15 - also the related convective feedback problem you alluded to.

Anony,

Nothing earth shattering on Joe this morning. I went and checked him out after I posted and he just said that he's watching too and expressed a few concerns.

Steve