there's an awful lot of low level convergence near the florida peninsula. notice that low cloud motions in the gulf are from the west, while in the atlantic they're out of the east to the decaying trough oriented nne from the bahamas. several models are alluding to disturbed weather there, but none are really taking off. i have to admit that upper conditions are decidedly neutral, with no real evacuation mechanism in place for convective growth.. unless an outflow jet from whatever thunderstorm activity near south florida were to hook into the nearby upper flow.
away east the disturbance between hispaniola and bermuda looks about like yesterday. not making any hay right now.. the trades are blasting away underneath the upper low and it's corresponding convection enhancement area and will have to subside some before anything can get started there.. closer in as the trough remnants near the bahamas to off hatteras decay they could potentially spawn something else along the lines of erstwhile 98L.
the MDR out in the east atlantic has nothing on the burner. only other thing of interest to me is that the trades are weaker at low latitudes in the caribbean and the itcz is inching northward near panama.. nothing progged on the models but something could try to sneak in down there next few days. end of the month gfs has yet another good wave coming off africa. it's hinting at development and has been with some consistency, so it will at least be worth watching.
that's the story. nothing is happening just yet.
HF 2205z28july