Looks like things are going to get busy near the U.S. during this weekend and during the upcoming week.

99L doesn't have a circulation at the surface yet, and that is its biggest problem. If you think the system looks good now, wait until the shear subsides even more. All of the models are forecasting a decrease in shear near the SE Coast. I'd say that we are going to probably see development out of this. It just needs some time to develop a surface circ. I think the conditions favor this scenario. I guess track could be interesting too. Gut feeling says NW with an eventual brush with coastal NC, but things get interesting (and tough to figure out) if the system stalls towards the latter part of the weekend.

The gom system is showing life as well. The thunderstorm activity in the southeastern Gulf is already becoming stronger. I think the first test for this system is nighttime persistence. If it persists overnight, then I can really see things starting to roll tomorrow. The upper-level winds also look favorable.

Alex and Bonnie within a few days? Don't rule it out. Heck, we could even see Charley by Monday if believe in the African development that the GFS is showing.

not much longer...