circumstances got me off work today early. more to look at than i'd expected. going to be working the treestands and property at my grandpa's tomorrow so probably won't be around WHEN THE TIME COMES, but i'll try to predict upcoming events now.
the eastpac has spit out system number four (blas, celia, darby, 6E) in the last two weeks, and now the atlantic has finally responded in kind with the upstream development. over in the westpac the pattern drove a typhoon on an unusual northwest track near japan, which teleconnects to a hit on the s.e. coast. the precursors were there, the gate is down.. and today we have two invests.
99L (invest 10) is impressive and probably well suited to develop quickly once a surface low develops. convection is persisting and refiring in the diffluent zone east of the upper trough near the bahamas, and has the potential to support a healthy tropical cyclone. even though 90L (invest 11) has a better surface setup, 99L is rapidly catching up. already the low cloud movements are beginning to hairpin near the convection, and i'm sure that there have been some pressure falls. i believe a tropical depression will form there tomorrow morning and be alex by evening. haven't had a great view of the models, but feel it's overall movement will be slowly nw to the s.e. coast between melbourne and georgetown. it should will probably reach the s.e. coast sunday or monday (should slow down as it nears 80w). a lot can happen between now and then, or nothing can happen, but there is potential for an interesting time.
for 90L, development should be slower. if 99L cranks quickly it will likely be inhibited. initial movement for 90L should be erraticly westward and slow.. if it develops it will likely come north between the big bend and the ms/al line middle of next week.
it is very likely we'll have a named storm by the weekend. it is also likely that a tropical system will landfall in the southeastern u.s. by the middle of next week. if both develop they'll be close enough to affect one another, fujiwhara or otherwise.
we've had a few false alarms early this season.. looks like the real thing this time. get psyched.
HF 1912z29july