99L's surface trough is east of the main convective blow up. the vortmax in the northern part is moving away west.. with some convection. i don't think it's the primary. a weaker one to the south is drifting almost underneath the upper trough , with the trades barely pushing it (as the main convective blow up is immediately ese of it). as the convective max propagates westward, i'm expecting a closed center to form early tomorrow in the vicinity of 24/72.
away west 90L is being driven slowly southwestward by the upper level winds ahead of the slowly retrograding upper trough. i'm thinking now that the weak surface low will begin deepening closer to cozumel than key west, and stay further to the south. it should also pump the mid level ridge to the north and keep the first shortwave for this weekend out of the picture.. though later one may be in place to get it in the western gulf. earlier i was thinking the shortwave would wind up getting both systems, but this one seems more affected by weather to its east than weather to its northwest.
so yeah, first impulse with 90L probably wrong. but i'm sticking with the thoughts on 99L.
HF 2239z29july