gotta wake up early tomorrow, but hard to resist a late check.
99L: was thinking that the vortmax scraping along under the upper trough was going to be superceded by a secondary further east.. not so. there is some convection just north of the pick of the litter, and as the diurnal/enhanced convection southeast of this embryonic center goes away i expect the trades will get enough surface convergence in the area for it to jump off tomorrow morning. somewhat west of where i was thinking.. thinking i'll keep my forecast track south of what most are saying, more of a ga/fl thing than a sc/nc one. also, as usual, take issue with the folks calling it more baroclinic than barotropic. it's a wave interacting with a trough split.. not a cut off hybrid low. probably a third of all tropical cyclones form this way, aided by convection-enhancing pockets within the nearby upper pattern.
90L: broad and taking it slowly. i'm guessing it will originate close to the western tip of cuba, and meander for a couple days while the upper pattern modifies nearby. a mid-upper vortmax just jetted over it this evening and has helped keep it disorganized.. eventually it will buck that trend.
as for the ultimate track of either system.. 99L is the easier to determine since the atlantic ridge (and a shortwave of dubious strength) will define its path once it gets organized. 90L is less influenced by either and probably going to do some meandering as the steering influences in the gulf are unclear at this point. really, dependent on when and how much either system strengthens, there is a whole realm of possibilites for future track. when the systems are organized enough to be classified, we'll start getting a real feel for specifics.. at this point suffice to say 99L will likely moving towards the upper east florida to south carolina coast, and 90L will probably jig-bob around while the flow around it modifies.. eventually go west to northwest, and hit somewhere along the gulf coast to be determined by how amplified the shortwaves traveling by to the north become.
that was really a lot of rhetoric, like you may have just heard on a political convention. we've got weak systems and they're really hard to nail down.
waves in the east atlantic coming across. they're wait/see for now.
HF 0403z30july