this is just like last night... with just minor changes. not what i expected to say the least.
99L is at d1.5, has been there all day. since it's been hanging on the flank of an upper low and in a diffluent/shear environment, there's all this talk about calling it subtropical. nhc is in on the act. i think that's stupid, but too many voices to just blow off.
anyhow, my ideas from yesterday are blown, except for the track. it's about where i was saying, though not classified. only structural difference from last night is that the 'robber convection' (that is, convection that blocks potential inflow and low level convergence from taking place with an embryonic low) is now just east of the center, where it can do some good. less certain, but still think it will be alex tomorrow.
track should turn northward very close to the coast.. none of that n.c. stuff, this is upper florida to lower south carolina all the way. i've been watching the cumulus clouds float by my grandpa's all day from the southeast.. that is the low level driving flow for now.
90L is depressed to the yucatan channel now. probably just about done being jammed sw. ideas on it haven't changed, since it's doing what i want it to. it's interaction with the other system has been that it get's sloppy seconds on inflow and convective support. 99L isn't a permanent fixture however, and this should change over the weekend. probably a classifiable system somewhere north of cancun on sunday. that's if all the stuff that is now firing along cuba doesn't start something first (it is stealing the fire).
possible invest on that new wave. of course it will probably drop everything, but there may be enough left for it to start something. gfs has been harping on it for days, so it's a watcher at least.
that's the story. botched timetables so far, but not totally out to pasture. nite all.
HF 0454z31july