quick shot of obs.
99L is a tropical depression. the nhc may be aware of this and should make this same observation shortly. i'm still not on the nc bandwagon, though history has taught me this is usually the safest course, i'm sticking with it running the georgia coast if not landfalling there. the current steering mechanism is breaking down, and it will be changing course near 80w.. and slowing down. it may be intensifying right along the coast tomorrow and monday.
ed pointed to a convective blow up out near bermuda. i'm slightly more impressed by the one near 30/70. i had pretty much overlooked it. that upper energy descent sw-ward east of bermuda i hadn't overlooked.. noticed models calling for it a few days back. it will in the end be of the same ilk as 99L and the system between it and 99L (partially induced by energy backing southwest around the bermuda high). erika last summer originated in this way. no cause for alarm and it will ultimately turn into the north atlantic even if it can muster a surface system.
90L continues to meander and not develop. this one has time on its side. dealing with 'robber convection' that has been persisting around cuba and around 99L. it may continue to wander, but really all it needs is one good burst..
its future is probably to the west around texas, i'll concede. with it taking forever to develop, predicting its movement thus far has been 'drifting west'. dependent on when/if it starts a whole realm of possible tracks have and will exist.
east atlanitc:
probably will be an invest, as noted earlier by others, on the system near 10/30. most of it's torque is mid level.. sloppy e-w oblong trough at the surface. racing in the deep easterlies.. not going to do much until it drops a gear or two. a good shot of subsidence would probably be lethal now.. with the SAL hanging out there that is always likely.
more waves behind it. gfs has been triggerhappy with the lot of them, so they're always worth checking up on. we've reached the threshold for the east atlantic.. the sweet spot is still three-five weeks in the future.
HF 1744z31july