WTNT71 KNHC 312033
SPFAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT TUE AUG 3 2004

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

32.9N 79.2W 47 X X X 47 NORFOLK VA X 1 10 5 16
34.0N 78.0W 17 7 1 X 25 OCEAN CITY MD X X 3 9 12
35.2N 76.6W X 12 5 2 19 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X 1 9 10
JACKSONVILLE FL 2 X X 1 3 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 7 7
SAVANNAH GA 26 X X X 26 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 5 5
CHARLESTON SC 45 X X X 45 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 3 3
MYRTLE BEACH SC 30 1 X X 31 NANTUCKET MA X X X 3 3
WILMINGTON NC 12 10 2 X 24 HYANNIS MA X X X 3 3
MOREHEAD CITY NC 2 13 4 1 20 BOSTON MA X X X 2 2
CAPE HATTERAS NC X 7 8 3 18

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON
C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON
D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER BEVEN