Well it seems like Alex hasnt really wanted to play ball today. Looking weak and unorganised at first he strengthened to a 40 mph Tropical Storm. He has been going to move to the north or north-northeast; but doesnt seem to have quite got the message yet as he isnt going anywhere fast. And now it looks like he might strengthen some more.

The satellite appearance is improving, and there is no some evidence of a little outflow extending northeast from the area of convection. As the NHC say this indicates upper-level conditions are becoming more favourable, but interestingly the intensity forecast call for him to strengthen to 45 knots, and no higher. I think it may be that Alex could strengthen a little more than forecast, as long as he keeps off the coast.