Actually, ever since Alex got named, he hasn't behaved as the NHC has thought. My gut (and that's all it is) feeling is that he hangs out (stationary) for the time being, before beginning a slow north, then northeast jog. I think the center stays off the coast (just barely), and convection really begins to wrap around the east and northeast quadrants. Folks along the SC and NC beaches will be in for quite a bit of nasty weather.

Cantore is in Wrightsville Beach, NC, so you have to figure the storm will eventually get fairly close to him in the next 24-36 hours. Visibles from there today showed pretty heavy surf and beautiful sunshine, but that's going to change in short order.

As far as intensity, I think this is somewhere in between SHIPS (60 mph @ 24 Hours) and NHC (40 mph); I'll say Alex gets up to 50+ mph in the next 24 hours or so.

Remember, he got named before NHC thought he would (although it should have been fairly apparent he'd get named sooner--hey, if I can see that coming, then they sure should have

).

A'ight [tm by HF], that's my take. Probably be wrong as usual but Alex aint misbehavin'.