SHIPS model guidance jacks Alex up to 83 mph in 36 hours and 86 mph in 48 hours. Although this may be high, SHIPS has outperformed NHC's official forecasts. Why just yesterday, NHC wasn't predicting anything above 40 mph and this morning it's up to 60.

I believe Alex will reach hurricane status by 24 hours, if not sooner. Whether NHC will actually classify it as such remains to be seen...this could have an affect on everyone's numbers. JB has opined that under optimal strengthening conditions, Alex could exceed 100 mph(!). He's not predicting that...merely mentioning the possibility. Used the same analogy as with 90L...the rock up the hill. Well, in this case, it seems as though Alex has pushed the rock to the top of the hill, and the rock is about to tumble down.

Alex should begin a slow northward, then northeastward movement, and then take off rather quickly after that, barely missing landfall in SC. Winds are starting to pick up away from the center and it appears on radar that an eye is forming. I don't believe too many TS's form eyes...that's for 'canes.

I wouldn't be surprised to see hurricane watches go up at the next advisory...

Will be interesting to see what happens...