there are two tropical systems out there tonight. i'm going to go ahead and classify t.d. 2 now, actually several hours ago when it rated 2.0. nhc will just have to fix that in the post-analysis.
alex first. three days ago i was holding out that it would nudge west into georgia or something, but instead it made an attempted cycloidal loop last 36 hours (think it came out with a figure eight) and now has finally had the ridge removed. latest shots tell me that it's accelerating.. and still trying to form an eye. upper sw-erlies are going to start infringing overnight but that should result more in a baroclinic jolt than anything else, and alex should be a hurricane when it runs the outer banks. i'm going to set my sights on a gustav '02-style graze from cape lookout along the barrier islands. eyewall onshore, eye center at or just offshore. think intensity will be 70kt give or take, and peak around 80kt east of virginia early wednesday.
91L, or tropical depression 2 as i prefer, will be officially classified at 11, unless the nhc feels like delaying this information will do the central islands any good. it's at 12N/49W or so, current trajectory around 280, motion maybe 16kt. slowing a tad, and i'm thinking it will begin to move wnw tomorrow. a cdo is developing and it will be bonnie by midday tomorrow. should reach the islands around guadeloupe wednesday afternoon. i'm really iffy on the upper air setup. it will have to deal with some shear around the greater antilles.. and probably a good chunk of island (d.r.?). my long-run take is that if it gets to be a hurricane before reaching 60w, it will recurve ahead of the upper trough late in the week and clip bermuda or something. if it stays below it should get hung near the bahamas around the weekend.. too little information to make an educated guess from there.
add into the mix the cutoff energy near 24/62.. not very impressive at the moment and unlikely to develop.. but if it starts up it throws future bonnie's fate into the air.
92L is far east and unlikely to develop much over the next 2 days.. it will probably maintain or wane a tad, and stay on a mostly westward course. expect it's run to come later in the week. if it's development comes early, it will move wnw into very dry conditions and marginally warm waters.. and struggle anyway. gfs has it going way out into the north atlantic.. don't buy that just now.
gfs likes a follow on wave to 92L (watcher for late week) and there is a low potential for alex's 'tail' to fester in the gulf. not a concern right now.
the sharp trough forecast to dig into the east this weekend i expect to split.. if future bonnie is strong it will run up ahead of it.. if it intensifies slowly and hangs near the caribbean it will be a problem for the u.s. later, because once that trough splits the east coast is wide open again. gfs has a few runs (these are not terribly believeable) where the trough sets up camp a'la 2000 and keeps the everybody west of 70w out of trouble. could be true, but i think it's just a dumb idea gfs has stuck in it's noggin.
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