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A VERY ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY NEAR 51 OR 52 WEST OR ABOUT 950 MILES TO THE SOUTHEAST EAST OF THE U.S.V.I...CONTINUES TO THE WEST NORTH WEST AROUND 15 KNOTS. TPC ESTIMATES THAT THERE IS A 1011 MB LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT. IT COULD VERY WELL BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY ONCE THE VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY STARTS COMING IN. WITH THE NIGHT TIME IMAGERY IT IS HARD TO DISCERN A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE LATEST QUICKSCAT PASS NEAR 22Z DID INDICATE A CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL APPROACH THE U.S.V.I AND PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...INITIALLY THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE. THEN THE GUIDANCE DOES SOME FLIP FLOPPING ABOUT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND IT IS HARD TO DISCERN IF THE MAIN WAVE ENERGY WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY PASS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO TELL AND THIS ACTIVE WAVE MUST BE CLOSELY MONITORED...ESPECIALLY AS SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. This was the discussion from the San Juan NWS. Here in Puerto Rico I am watching all of this and the officials too.Regardless of what turns out to be when it nears Puerto Rico copius rains will arrive starting thrusday going into friday. |