Cycloneye
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Aug 03 2004 11:58 AM
Re: Alexs Becomes First Hurricane of Season, Skirts NC Coastline

A VERY ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY NEAR 51 OR 52 WEST OR ABOUT
950 MILES TO THE SOUTHEAST EAST OF THE U.S.V.I...CONTINUES TO THE
WEST NORTH WEST AROUND 15 KNOTS. TPC ESTIMATES THAT THERE IS A 1011
MB LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT. IT COULD VERY WELL BE UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY ONCE THE VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY STARTS COMING
IN. WITH THE NIGHT TIME IMAGERY IT IS HARD TO DISCERN A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE LATEST QUICKSCAT PASS NEAR 22Z DID INDICATE A
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES IT
WILL APPROACH THE U.S.V.I AND PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...INITIALLY THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE.
THEN THE GUIDANCE DOES SOME FLIP FLOPPING ABOUT THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND IT IS HARD TO DISCERN IF THE MAIN WAVE
ENERGY WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY PASS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION. BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO TELL AND THIS ACTIVE WAVE MUST BE
CLOSELY MONITORED...ESPECIALLY AS SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

This was the discussion from the San Juan NWS.

Here in Puerto Rico I am watching all of this and the officials too.Regardless of what turns out to be when it nears Puerto Rico copius rains will arrive starting thrusday going into friday.



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center