Hi...great morning here watching storms form and explode..

90mph..who knew?

Coming very close to shore here..

Think Bonnie will be born today.. waiting to be "sure" I suppose and a little busy.

Wrote up a long analysis on old thread.. my thoughts haven't changed except that...think the door to a path out of trouble is closing..

Watch this throughout the day..see what I mean.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/Lasttrpg8wvL.html

And..question... am I to understand that you don't want us to post thoughts on 91 here but ony in storm forum? I'm getting that impression that rules are being laid down.. and if so would like to have them explained.

Prefer posting in one forum as it will be a busy season and time is limited and dont want to have to run back and forth from Alex to Bonnie and new things because it is ALL connected..especially as it gets down the line.

Look at that tail on Alex.. from the moisture he has been trailing over Florida..wrapped in nice.. amazing how storms work.

Ok..this was my post, hope im not breaking rules here..reason I am reposting it is because of this..

IF.. Alex is strengthening.. affects the picture he leaves behind. In my mind slams some doors that were previously thought to be open shut tighter.. high could build in deeper.. next trough won't set up where we thought it would when we were thinking Alex would top out at 70.. Big difference, big..

So...everything is fluid... and because Alex is a strong Cat 1.. maybe even be Cat 2..that HAS to change what was thought to be yesterday based on maybe he'd make it to hurricane status.. changes thoughts on Bonnie I think.

Like Hanks take on that one..
congratulations to anyone who thought Alex would be so strong

Bobbi
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Thanks Daniel for that wonderful picture show this morning. Definitely worth checking the site for that alone. Saved that nice Euromet one...worthy of having down the road.. nice pic of a system on its way somewhere... bon voyage shot.

Multiple doors out there... don't think anything is set as far as a track.

Shear out ahead looks a bit stronger than it has.. which will keep it a drop in check but also provide a sort of ventilating and will keep its size fed. High looks weaker than it is... water vapors can be deceptive and once Alex gets out of here ... will see what really happens in the environment to her NW. See how wide that door is really open or will the high travel a bit with it? Orientation of door opening and the high does not lead me to believe it will be an easy shot to slide off to sea and be a fish.

Agree Daniel..the real point of contention for most of us is the wave that will be Bonnie.

Alex is putting on quite a show and as he strengthens and how fast he goes will say a lot also about what he will leave in his wake for Bonnie to decide where to go.

Also of note.. is working out of NHC on wave closer to Africa "part of wave" and watch that dance between moisture?? to its SW and how its trying to stay to the north. Lot of connections out there.

As for the wave that should be Bonnie real soon.. she's looking really good on sats this morning. Better than Alex was when he was a TD.. and a storm.. has color. Even has color on NRL. Would venture to say that after they examine all the various data they will agree she definitely has winds over 25 mph in there..

But where? Where is the point?
Where is her true center?
Is it at 14.5 13.7?
Play all you want with ghcc site but once we get planes in there we will know for sure. And a difference of 13.5 and 14.5 can make a whole big difference in track.

Lot to think today for people... storm could affect many different areas, islands, land masses, ship routes.. or it could curve out to sea.

Place your bets .. someone will win, someone will lose.. but we will all be watching.

Bobbi

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Canes are Dynamite, Canes are Dynamite!
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/