danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Tue Aug 03 2004 02:07 PM
Re: 90mph and 91

Okay I've checked the new 91L models against the one from 12hrs ago. All 4 models, have reduced the latitude and lengthened the longitude. 00Z models were in the 14.1-14.7N and 57.6-59.0 range. 12Z models are showing 14.2-14.7N and 59.4-60.7W for 24hr period ending at 12Z on 80404. Intensity fcst remains at 37kts for 080404 12Z.

I don't have a lot of data on Alex's models. 12hr fcst was for 68kts. 90mph equals about 78kts. Looking back on the last 3 model outputs none of them took Alex above 77kts.
BAMD hit closest on lat/long. -0.2N/ -0.2W. Not bad at all for 12 hours. That should be about 15 miles off.

Ship report from 122nm NNE of 91L at 12Z.
C6QD2 S 1200z 15.60N -53.60W 122nm 8dg wind050@ 20.0kts - - - bar29.97 +0.00 airT82.4 seaT82.4 dpT79.9 vis6.2nm -



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center