Taking big chance; took one yesterday with regard to this new TD when I said the trough would not dig deeply on its southern end to allow this system to feel it, and I'm sticking to it. Why, and i'm not basing this on anything except trying to discern the progression of the trough toward the east coast: I see the makings of an ULL in the central GOM. If that happens then I don't see the southern part of the trough reaching far enough east to pull the system north.
There is however the remants of last week's trough ahead of it which seems to have a sw-ne axis directly over Hispanola, and that could be why the models pull it abruptly to the north in a couple of days. But as for now it is not as far north as originally thought, due to its speed I think, and the projectd path is already left of where the current runs place it.
Maybe somebody can explain the science in the development of the "wide trough" over the East coast that the NHC is discussing as the influence on the system in 3-4 days. Don't see it so far.