As I said earlier... its going to battle some shear. The envelope is bigger than the compact center that is rolling along steadily westward. It has looked pretty much like that for the last day or two. IF it were to intensify that pocket would fill out real fast. It has nice bands which bring in moisture and it is evacuating pretty nicely for a TD.

I think Avila was covering his you know what as he hates to upgrade w/o benefit of recon info. But, its closing in on the islands fast and they can't send a plane in til tomorrow.

With Alex catching them a bit off guard (in intensity) now is not the time to play it shy with Bonnie.

She will develop. She is not Debby, Debbie or Debra.. she isn't a fish and she isn't a duck. She's westward bound into prime time territory. Stop living in the past. Each storm is different. To say her path might be similar to Debby.. that is very possible.

And.. may I add that the longer she takes to intensify the further to the left of the forecast she will end up.

Enjoy the Cane that was sent you.. dance with it, enjoy, love the one you are with and stop remembering the one that annoyed the heck out of you

Bobbi