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Rabbit, perhaps you have an outdated link to NRL. >>> 92L is no longer active as all of the data is more than 12 hours old It's still there still active, in fact: WTNT21 KNGU 022300 SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 022300Z AUG 04// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1N4 48.0W2 TO 15.0N6 55.0W0 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMĀ AGERY AT 021800Z1 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N3 48.0W2. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS LOCATED ABOVE THIS TROPICAL WAVE 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 032300Z8.// But wait, there's more... tropical cyclone formation alert. You still didn't answer my question as to how if 02 NONAME doesn't get named by 5:00 it won't become a storm. Saying the second TD of the season doesn't develop x number of years out of y doesn't cut it. Since your link to the NRL may not be working properly, here's the one you should use: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html If you look at the latest official advisory for 02LNONAME, you'll see it becomes a TS at 04/00Z, which, if I'm doing the math correctly, translates to 8:00 EDT, which is tonight at 8:00. Anyone else think we won't have Bonnie by tomorrow? |