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in response to Phil, the reason I think it will not be a storm if it is not upgraded soon is that 1) it is moving into a large area of dry air, and 2) the shear is beginning to increase; the system does not have a well defined surface low. Unlike Alex, which was also disorganized for a while, the TD is in a much harsher environment and moving a lot faster than Alex, which at the time was not moving at all |