Well, I was wrong on TD2 being Bonnie at 5:00. We'll see what the 11:00 brings us. I'm beginning to think they won't rely solely on visuals and Dvorak, but rather wait until they can get recon in there. I hope that gives the Islands enough time to prepare. Granted, if it's not a TS then calling it such would be wrong, but I'm sure the folks in Hispaniola might like a heads up, and I don't think they had a heads up in May.

At least they have warnings up now:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ST LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE...MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS NORTH OF ST. LUCIA.

I'll hold off any further speculation until we get an updated quikscat and the 23:45 T's.