i'll truncate things tonight.
did ok with alex myself. hit the right edge of my track envelope and peaked a tad earlier than i thought (unless alex deepens again by tomorrow, got close on intensity). five days ago i was dead set on further down the coast, but it turned out only to hang nearby before moving NE.
t.d. 2 is the new and upcoming story. varmint is already calling for it's quick demise (says it's already dead even), but i think it has other plans. i was expecting a bonnie today, but of course they need to see an eye or get a recon measurement before naming a system, so guess i'll have to wait. as is with the fast forward motion (faster than i thought) it is probably loosely organized and has gale winds on the north side, but nhc is playing it close as usual and i can't totally blame them. we don't have to wait for recon, by the way, for a real way to gauge whether it is closed or not.. it will be going by barbados probably before or around daybreak.
i've been poring over the globals trying to develop scenarios with the system, and they are currently as follows:
1) it listens to varmint (he's right, TD 2s do have a knack for crib death) or at least catches his psychic urge, and keeps sliding westward oblivious to the decaying ridge to the north. deep layer flow is still cranking westward.. though it should at least drop out of fifth over the weekend as the shortwave to the north does it's thing. perhaps it will be an open wave, perhaps it will be a weak system that makes the journey westward. i give this broad scenario 25%.
2) it follows roughly the nhc forecast and deepens properly, responds to the receding ridge, and meets the gfs' classic overdone trough, which is real this time.. and sucker punches bermuda in about a week. 25% on this somewhat unimaginative scenario.
3) there is a bonnie that follows scenario #1 until it slows near 70w and ends up closer to the windward passage than the mona passage around friday. in this scenario the storm is checked by hispaniola while the shortwave to the north evolves.. i say evolves in that i think the gfs will change it's mind and split the trough, and that the main shot of the shortwave will outrun future bonnie and the piece it leaves will keep things jammed for a moment. if it doesn't split immediately then still i'd expect bonnie to be stuck under a the stretching base and not carried off. the scenario ends with a bonnie system left near the bahamas as the ridge redevelops. and i'm tagging it 50% for now.
scenario #3 shouldn't be taken seriously until t.d. 2 evolves and the model depictions of the upcoming trough are more solid (that bludgeoning trough has overdone written all over it in my reckoning). so anyway, that's t.d. 2 or bonnie or former t.d. 2 if varmint is about to score another coup.
then there's 92L. it's taking labored breaths as it trudges through the marginal waters and dry environment of east atlantic/16N latitude. take what globals have it doing and left-shift the track, and preclude development until near week's end. now you've got something there. if in fact the models are right and a piece slides west, piece slides NW.. either could do something, but more doubtfully. the northern piece would find plenty warm water, but a stagnant east atlantic environment.
nothing else of much interest. gulf not looking like it has anything up it's sleeve, weak disturbance near 25/65 overshadowed by overachieving alex. future waves are for the future. so it's really just alex going bye-bye, t.d. 2 with it's uncertain future, and 92L with a chinaman's chance (there's a good granpa-ism).
much to read. i didn't mean to lie, just happened.
gotta get gone.
HF 0026z04august