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Good observations HF ,as always. I'm leaning towards your scenario # 3, thinking that it may travel more westbound before the trough starts acting on it, pulling it more northward. Right now though the westerly speed of 23 mph is impeding the development., otherwise conditions are pretty good, some SW shear , but nothing major. if it slows down in forward speed , then we might have a Bonnie, maybe tomorrow. ![]() TG |