ok.. your#3 scenario is more plausible in line with current ongoing weather scene..

would like to agree she looks not that all great tonight and yet she looks pretty good for fighting shear and making it across a pretty dry Atlantic.. so have to consider her a contender and not just another pretty wave

maybe relocating.. maybe not, maybe going too darn fast

shear is i think stronger than any one talked about however.. most people assumed she would be higher up getting ready to turn by now in the north part of the islands.. and we are not there so the models didnt handle it well. That being said .. why would we expect her to fall apart and disapate? I mean that was part of it.. a big part. If part is way off.. you sort of have to throw out the rest of it. By my reckoning..

Will see tomorrow.. the planes will ...daylight will tell and as said here.. we should know from ground obs what is really going on. Hate to see her taken down to an open wave, would settle to hang onto TD for now.. Really STRONG shear there.. sort of double layer shear.

Alex looks good.

Bobbi