Not a popular position, but I don't think that it ever has been a Tropical Depression. Too many factors are missing. No west wind that I could detect - the Islands may soon confirm that. No established center - bouncing all over the place - still is. Convection still disorganized and has not improved much in the past two days - the rapid forward speed has kept development in check.

Probably will remain a TD or an open wave for the next two days. Strong westerly shear will see to that. Dry air ahead of the system really isn't all that dry, so that's a plus. Low shear zone around the wave itself is travelling with the system - also a plus.

I still think that this system, if it can survive the next couple of days, will make it to TS status - probably late Thursday or early Friday. With the rapid movement and a weak center further south than currently officially indicated, I just can't accept the 'cruise to Bermuda' scenario, i.e., I like Door #3.

Its a 'wait and see' for the next couple of days. There is a small chance that it might make TS status before then, but if it does, it will not intensify significantly until Friday or Saturday.
Cheers,
ED