Can't comment on Ed's argument, as I have no way to refute the lack of a west wind, except by visually interpreting sat. pics, which seem to suggest a closed lowythis morning...but who knows. Flight data will tells us all soon.
I still believe the argument on the trough is off in this case. Water vapor shows the trough rapidly advancing but it also confirms the tropical moisture plume expanding northward across the entire Florida and south Alabama area ahead of it. This northward advance seems enhanced by a (according to me) developing ULL over the northern GOM and a resulting flattening of the base of the trough. Thus I argue that the trough while strong will no infiltrate the Gulf Coast areas significantly enough to influence this system which has persisted in a 20kt westward motion, and that seems to be continuing.
This resistance to a more northward pull could be because it has no definite circulation at this time, as discussed by the NHC. But in any event the two NHC models 90 and 98 are calling for a more westward solution, and those assume a definite circulation.
I still foresee development and a deep penetration into the Carribean before recurvature.