dude, did you just relate the remnants of a tropical depression to hurricane camille? you might want to rethink the parallels.. cause they're about like relating a little league baseball player to a hall of famer. sure, it's infinitesmally possible, just not credible by any standard.
mjo be damned, we seem to be in an active span. either t.d. 2's remains have made one of the most dramatic slowdowns i've ever seen or this is a trick of IR imagery. i've eyeballed it on IR ch2 and the stuff i was guessing earlier.. that the proximity to land is aiding in causing drag on the south of the system, and that the wave axis is leaning forward as opposed to tailing back to the north like they usually do.. that stuff checks out. but really until the visibles tomorrow come out there won't be any strong clues as to what is going on with the blow up that is now less than 100mi north of isla de margarita (which inspires thoughts of jimmy buffett). they'll probably recon it unless the convection decays overnight (in which case the system would more than likely be beyond recovery). great uncertainty.. tomorrow should decide whether this thing goes away or becomes a bother.
alex is present proof that stuff can happen at high latitudes, and that when a sheared hurricane travels with the flow, it can still crank way up. i don't expect it to get a great deal stronger.. whatever is left of it will probably give the british isles a good shellacking monday-tuesdayish.
92L has a good low level turning and persistent local convection.. and it is not long before it will be over good support waters. i've got an inkling it might be the next depression by saturday, if things continue improving. also, note.. it is not going interminably NW like the models progged it to. is actually on a slightly south of due west trajectory... for the moment. should be near/north of the islands around sunday.
new wave coming off has all kinds of global support, and earlier folks were quoting the discussion mention of an impressive signature as it passed dakar. it's on the short waiting list, models have it developing a surface low near the itcz/35w or so by saturday.
heed what ol' sailor says about what gets left behind in the gulf, or off the eastern seaboard. there will probably be an earlier split of the trough than progged by gfs.. trend is going that way so far.. so look for an area of disturbed weather early/middle next week near the southeastern u.s.
i should get some sleep now. night folks.
HF 0353z05august