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Too hard to tell under that cloud of divergence. If you look at the Dvorak loop, appears shear is shooting a firehose at the wave from the west. Allso NE'erly shear at 45 degrees to the west shear across Cuba. If this disturbance wants to re-generate, it needs to gain some latitude (Jamaica). Shear is SUPPOSED to decrease during the next day or so. 12Z GFDL sparks it up again and moves it further west, but still hooks it out to sea (bad solution). We wait and watch. Cheers. |