remember that in 1998, the count by August 5 was 1/0/0, and TD2 (which became Bonnie) didn't even form until Aug 19. In the last week, there have been 2 tds, possibly on the way to a third

here are a few recent examples of late starts in active years:
1996: no August storms until Aug 19 (Dolly)
1998: Bonnie formed Aug 20; Total: 14
1999: Bret formed Aug 20; total: 12
2000: Beryl formed Aug 14; Total: 14
2001: Chantal, the first Cape Verde system, formed Aug 15; Total storms: 15

Also, if an El Niño were in existence, the Eastern Pacific would have had more than four storms by now, and would likely not have gone all of June without so much as a depression; last time that happened was 1969, which also had a late start in the Atlantic:
no TD until July 25
the first hurricane, Blanche, was Aug 11, 8 days after this year
the first major hurricane, Camille, was Aug 15, 10 days after this year

I am by no means predicting a season as active as 1969 or another Camille, but the evidence points to an active season, not a quiet one.