Yeah, but look at the upper air progs. That jet (and the ULL) is moving SW out front of the system. Down the line, it shouldn't have much of an effect. For now, it's just holding the system in check and disallowing recurvature.
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As to El Nino, there are mixed signals. Nino 3-4 is definitely in a warm phase. But this is offset by the cold phase in the Eastern Pacific. There are occasional bursts of westerlies down there but it shouldn't have much of an effect (enhancing or supressive) on the bulk of the 2004 season.

Steve