rabbit is not the most qualified among us to declare things over. he may be right after all... but i haven't heard the stuttering pig just yet. 91L/td2 does look like caca, outflow boundaries and such properly noted, but it is also refiring a good bit and sliding into the right part of the TUTT (southern extent of which is going to split anyway W) and into a region below a shortwave that should split overhead.. there is plenty of opportunity for upper air evacuation. the evidence of a very sharp wave is vaguer than yesterday (thanks a lot upper SWerlies), as the system is also entering an area of mid-level diffluence (precipice of the atlantic ridge which will be flattened out to the north). the profile of the entire disturbance is yet confused, and i'm not sure which part will continue onward. it hasn't worked yet, but now i'm reckoning the system will try to reorganize in this area of weaker steering and diverging upper air flow near jamaica over the next day or two. if it gets further west without development it's opportunities are more limited, and some of the wave energy will get into the gulf where a log jam related to what the big shortwave leaves will be loitering. the chance of development continues, thus the nhc outlook comments and continuing interest, but it hasn't shown a great deal of initiative thus far.
anyway, 40% on it redeveloping tomorrow near 17/72--either out with the shortwave quick or hang on it's belly like a remora until reaching it's desired release point and coming to annoy us. 40% on it ambling wnw, maintaining and remaining a development threat out to 72 hours, closer to the gulf. 20% that rabbit's incessant declaration that it is dying dead or never was will win the day.
the varmint has been restating the old discussion about early-season stuff as well.. i'd still give props to a transient tropical storm in late may and a depression of likewise nature in late july off the northeast (after all, alex seemed to have done alright out there). i won't go as far as the varmint, or as far as clarkE on the issue... minding that clarkE keeps quiet on most things and only says stuff that is well qualified or important.
glad i gave some props to 92L last night, cause it is looking like it will be doing some developing. i'm expecting it to struggle up to a weak tropical cyclone status (depression or just above) and work westward to wnw over the next 48 hours or so. maybe late in the weekend it will start really developing... somewhere near the islands. there should be solid mid-level ridging keeping it on a mostly westward track, but hard to say much beyond that. shear is a variable that could keep it from developing or keep it slow-growing.. but you know which side of the issue i'm on.
new wave coming off, with weaker-than-earlier (of course) model support but presumably fair chances of doing something if that low develops just off the itcz in the next couple of days. keep-in-mind, nothing more as of now.
alex departing after a thankfully mostly offshore performance.
heard the el nino chorus earlier today, will add my voice: *WHAT STEVE SAYS*.
i'm going to ride td2/91L until there's absolutely no chance left.. come crow what may. 92L i like and am fairly confident on. how quickly the sharp trough descending into the east hands control back to the ridge will be a very telling thing to watch.. the chance exists for it to be one of those late-summer/falls where the east coast is in a perpetual trough and activity stays out where we can watch it from a safe distance. i'm head-scratching over that one.
HF 0027z06august