Regarding your question on why "they" can't see lows are a problem.

Somehow lows that are about to become stronger don't always get picked up on the models. They are hard to see on sats until they get going. Again as I said the WV can give you a feel for where something might start twisting but that goes back to intuitive weather forecasting. A sense of what am I missing here? Something doesn't add up.

This is of course my opinon and an opinon based on Monday Morning quarterbacking by experts to explain why something that didn't form or didn't intensify didn't..

Meteorology is math.. if something doesn't add up right.. you are missing a part of the equation.

my thoughts, not from a textbook