>>... that upper low out on front of 91L that has been shearing the life out of it...like I said Thursday afternooon...gone

For now. The apex is moving SW so if you set your Goes 12 WV to 30 loops, you can see for yourself. Then you'll see it too

. Maybe you do or maybe you don't know this but ULL's can aid in ventilation of a tropical system depending on their relationship. If the ULL is positioned in such a way to allow exhaust into the entrance region of a jetstream, it's not going to shear it, it's gonna enahnce it. XTD2 will be in such a position after Sunday. Following the diving ULL, a ridge will be building across the GoM. Check out the GFS upper air charts (200mb, 850, etc.) and follow along the vortmax. You'll see an "x" near the Yucatan by Tuesday. Also, there is a front lying in the middle of the Gulf. This was not lost on the Mobile area NWS which has already referenced the ETA closing off a low south of Alabama and retrograding it west to the LA Coast. And that had nothing to do with the wave itself. The wave will provide heat and the proberbial spark to set off a system if one is in the offing.

Weather is dynamic. Just because you think you see something one day doesn't mean it's going to be the same thing the next. Like the media, everyone wants to be right and guess right first. They get all the glory when they do. Their comments are usually forgotten when they don't. Tuesday is a long way off, but I'd invite you to look at the facts:

a) some water in the Gulf is already > 90 degrees

b) there is a front lying across the Northern Gulf.

c) a wave, currently being sheared by an ULL that is moving away SW out in front of it is set to join the party if it survives.
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We shall see.

Steve