Steve: you posted, more eloquently than I could, what I was investigating my self. Provided there is still some sort of low presure area in the wave south of Hispanola we could have what occured with Alex which we recall rotated out over a retrograding ULL into a favorable environment for development. That is why NHC continues to caution that conditions can improve on the system in the next day or two.
Also recall that the shortwave trof now down about 29N was to be particularly strong and pull this system up north, but we now know that the west end of that is not going to progress further down than it has so this system should progress wnw into the southern GOM in the next two days...I am not bullish on this develpoing but i am not writing it off either...present appearances can be decieving.
As for 92L shear is pushing the tops off all convection and the llc is exposed...same problems other systems have had so far...this system is a fish spinner in any event too far north already, IMO.