got a date in a few so gotta make this short. easier said than done.
i'll preface my comments by saying that i went and made my observations, read through the main board posts, and realized that steve-o has already noticed most everything i did. a number of folks on the board today have been decrying shear and declaring that nothing can or will form. makes me wonder if anybody reads into the TWO.
first off 91L/td2. if you look at the forecast evolution for the upper air pattern nearby, you notice that it is forecast to be positioned in an outflow enhancing region after it negotiates the currently segmenting TUTT. steve has already explained the reasoning behind it's development potential.. and the nhc continues to keep recon on standby for a potential invest... obviously they see the potential as well. visibles today reveal that the lower level structure of the wave is still fairly sharp.. put this thing into a good environment and it has every chance of redeveloping.
similar comments for 92L. steve has already explained how the deep layer ridge should flatten and out and block its northward component.. if the low associated with the disturbance doesn't cross the axis prior to its reorientation. there is a small surface low embedded in the wave near 20/50, which is moving slowly nw in a sheared environment. much like 91L this system's nearby upper environment is currently unfavorable but forecast to become better over the weekend. and to be honest, it doesn't look much worse today. spotty convection and weak surface low.. essentially unchanged.
that low that was forecast by globals to form at low latitude along the wave trailing 92L does indeed appear to be forming. low latitude however, an elongated e-w. globals have backed off so until it gains some amplitude or independence from the itcz it poses little development threat.
ed d in va dropped the wakefield discussion and brought up a potential system down the road.. nontropical gulf origin. the low may be a result of some interaction with the former td2/91L wave.. it may be reading an entrainment of some of tropical energy. not too believable evolution at this point.. will have to see how globals continue handling it.
waves are taking their sweet time, but they haven't gone away either. i'm still agitating for their potential because it is real.
HF 2300z06august