Sat Morning Discussion:

000
AXNT20 KNHC 071101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT 07 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

..TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 25W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 38W/39W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 20 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN A SWIRL OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM 7N TO 12N
BETWEEN 40W AND 46W...AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 7N TO 13N
BETWEEN 35W AND 40W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W/52W SOUTH OF 25N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT.
1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG WAVE NEAR 21N. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21.5N TO 24N
BETWEEN 51W AND 54W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF T.D. TWO...NOW IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 79W/80W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
15 KT. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 17N TO 21N
BETWEEN 74W AND 84W...MORE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REALLY
THAN WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W
ALONG THE COSTA RICA AND PANAMA COASTS...POSSIBLY RELATED TO
THIS WAVE...AND POSSIBLY MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N25W 9N37W 10N50W 9N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 60W
AND 64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W...AND
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLC W OF 70W...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IS A RARE EARLY AUGUST COLD
FRONT FROM THE W ATLC NEAR 31N72W TO THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST
NEAR 29N80W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO AN 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS NEAR 29N84W. THE FRONT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO 28N93W. DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT 28N93W TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 30N99W. TROUGH RUNS
FROM LOW CENTER TO 27N90W AND 27N94W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 63W AND 80W...IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...
IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 82W AND
87W...AND IN THE WESTERN GULF WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 25N91W 26N94W 28N96W. DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFFSHORE
ALREADY INTO WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...ALONG 77W/78W...RUNNING
FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N THROUGH 32N. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS LEFT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH HAD BEEN
MOVING ACROSS MEXICO DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...NOW IS IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 18N106W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH...SENDS WINDS FROM 350 MB AND HIGHER TOWARD
30N60W...AWAY FROM THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH...AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD AS UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TOWARD THE
GREATER ANTILLES.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE DEEP LAYER WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH...WITH THE CURRENT UNITED STATES COLD
FRONT...PASSES OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES...STAYING BETWEEN 65W
AND 72W...REACHING NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/AREA OF ELONGATED CYCLONIC WIND FLOW RUNS FROM CUBA NEAR
21N79W TO EAST CENTRAL NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W AND ACROSS
NICARAGUA TO 12N86W...FORECAST TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD DURING
THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE IS FORMING OVER NW COLOMBIA AND
IS TRYING TO BUILD NORTHWARD TO WESTERN HAITI BEHIND THE
WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
DRY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL AIR IS FLOWING INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...KEEPING A LID ON ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SUBTROPICS EAST OF 70W...
STRONG MID-OCEANIC TROUGH IS IN POSITION FROM 23N59W TO THE
MONA PASSAGE. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SHEARING THE SURFACE LOW NEAR
21N52W WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY WITH SHEAR FORECAST TO
REMAIN HIGH FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 30W WITH
A CLOSED HIGH NEAR 22N AND A MID-UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE E ATLC
NEAR 32N14W TO 29N26W. THIS TROUGH COULD HELP TO USHER IN A COLD
FRONT TO THE FAR NE ATLC LATE TOMORROW. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RELATIVELY DRY OFF THE AFRICAN COAST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. SURFACE RIDGE THROUGH 32N52W TO 25N63W 21N70W...ACROSS
CUBA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
UPPER HIGH IN THE SUBTROPICS IS KEEPING EASTERLY FLOW S OF A
RIDGE AXIS FROM ABOUT BARBADOS TO 20N38W. WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
NEAR THE CAPE VERDES IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION. OTHERWISE
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE WATER VAPOR PICTURES N OF 15N E OF
40W. PRESSURES ARE HIGHER-THAN-AVERAGE IN THE DEEP TROPICS WITH
A TRADEWIND SURGE NOTED N OF 14N BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDES AND 43W.

$$
MT

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Go out ....do the yardwork..Looks like we are in for a few days wait for any significant developments.